Outlook for the stock market week from 16 – 20/11/2009
VnEconomy highlights some comments by several securities companies on the stock market's evolutions week from 16 - 20/11/2009.
Should keep the cash rate of around 40% of list
(Securities Corporation FPT - FPTS)
"Week, only VN-Index has fallen 1.2% over the previous week, down 548.21 points. Volume and value of transactions continued to decrease slightly with the week before to reach 46.24 million shares, equivalent to 2105 billion, from the 57.63 million shares, equivalent to 2664 billion the week before.
Transaction second week in November end, the psychology of investors have less stress than two weeks earlier. We believe that the main factors that help stabilize the psychology of investors in Vietnam's stock market last week from the U.S. market.
The Dow Jones index was kept at over 10 thousand points with a few relatively positive information about the economic recovery is the only factor helps VN-Index has increased to 3 sessions consecutive points.
During the recent gold market, dollar and real estate are the strong fluctuations. Especially the real estate market (especially Hanoi area) are currently the hot sauce. Usually after that period, the investment in real estate will have many risks should be a part of real estate speculators to withdraw capital from the market.
Meanwhile, gold and dollar markets are more unpredictable changes and potential high risk. We therefore believe that if the "bubble" real estate opportunities for the deflated stock market in the medium term is very large.
In short there are still factors that can negatively impact the market. That is information the State Bank has asked the credit institutions do not make the interest rate agreement for the loan investment property and property finance.
Conditions are the stress of raising capital, banks have pushed up interest rates to mobilize the means that the loan or investment property investment securities will be limited. Resulting in additional capital poured into the market is not as important as recently.
With the analysis above, we think the stock market will be difficult to mutations in the coming weeks. The chemical distribution market will be larger rather than the phenomenon of stock reduction in bulk (or bulk up the session recovery) as time past.
Investors should keep the cash rate of around 40% of the list to wait for the opportunities more clearly in future. If you decide to buy should only buy stocks with good liquidity and the basic indicator of beauty. Limited investment in the stock even less liquidity of shares that fluctuating earlier.
Market expectations continue to increase
(Securities Corporation Europe Vietnamese - AVSC)
"In the past week gold and foreign exchange market was fluctuating gold prices and the exchange market by the row set a new record. However, the situation was stable again when the government denied rumors of relaxed exchange rate and the State Bank to import information for gold.
VIR pm on November 13 the news of the Bank urged banks do not make the interest rate agreement for the loan investment finance, real estate and ask the bank handling before March 31, 2010 for cases of loan interest rate agreement is not properly regulated.
According to us, most likely the commercial banks to recover capital priority than loans with interest rate 10.5% per year for profit is too low. Investors should closely monitor these evolutions as may affect the cash flow into two channels investments.
However, considering the short term, the market still has the support information such as information sharing enjoy the last months of the year, and promising good profits in the first quarter 4/2009 of many businesses.
Technical analysis also shows that our VN-Index still in recovery phase with short-term goal of 565-570 points. However, to achieve this goal, first VN-Index to conquer the psychological threshold of resistance at 550 and it is likely that many investors short-term capital via key words.
We recommend that, long-term investors can consider buying the shares in the base price target to welcome the fourth-quarter results.
Caution when low liquidity
(Joint Stock Company Ho Chi Minh City Securities - HSC)
"Overall the recovery of the VN-Index on the last session on November 13 is surprising. This shows that in the short term the market may or will Linh xinh or increase slightly.
Probably stabilize the gold market and currency have helped investors in the stock market is concerned about the temporary return. However, the market may lack motivation to increase more.
This is the version of Monday ordered the threshold stands at nearly 10 million units but does not pass the threshold. Besides setting sales volume at approximately eight million units shows that investors are still very reluctant and not determine the trend of the market coming.
Therefore, we remain cautious perspective. Although the VN-Index received support from investors during the session held recently, the low liquidity of the market has caused us to be vigilant. "
* Get to market of securities companies are VnEconomy cited only valid as a source of reference information only. Securities companies may have conflicts of interest to investors when made the comment.
