Outlook for the Vietnam stock market (VN Index)
Following are comments and forecasts on Vỉetnam stock market week from 30/11/2009 t0 4/12/2009 by Securities Companies.
Insufficient basis to believe in recovery phase (by Securities Corporation FPT - FPTS)
"Last week, VN-Index has fallen 11.73% over the previous week, down 490.62 points. Volume and value transactions decline compared to last week when reached 50.48 million shares, equivalent to 2254 billion, from the 51.28 million shares, equivalent to 2628 billion the week before.
A stressed week closed, the expectation of many investors and us about a week of light recovery did not happen. Contrast it brings sadness and frustration, anxiety of most participants in the market.
Fortunately, the weekend session closed with excellent blue VN-Index made investors less psychological confusion. Observed market we found two main reasons causing the transaction last week.
First, the information has shocked the investors. Information the State Bank to adjust the basic interest rate from 7% to 8% from the first of December made many investors react negatively. The reason is the notice that the State Bank made clear the view will not adjust the basic interest rate to the end of 2009.
In the context of stock markets have shuffled the above information has to negatively impact the trust of investors and they decided to remove the stock sale. But we think that decision was not necessarily negative because it will resolve tensions in the bank recently. Negative effects of this decision is perhaps the most obvious possibility inflation will take place from early 2010.
Second, the upgrading pressure sales increased strongly in the past week due to decline earlier. Actually has a lot of customers forced to sell the securities pledged with banks or earlier in some company stock by stock price has been reduced to the process.
At the same time there are too many investors fall into the state on the same cause in increased mutation. Now that investors are making a purchase decision to delay his plans to buy. We appreciate this is the most important reasons lead to decrease of the market last week.
The highlight of the evolutions of the week is trading activities of trading volume of foreign investors. Their net buying activity has led to declining demand is not too serious. This is also the problem that investors should be mindful it could be by an indicator for the recovery of the market in the near future.
Market trends this week according to our assessment is unclear. Not sufficient basis to believe in recovery phase of the market. But conversely, the ability does not decrease because of the high points are fully reflected in the negative factors in recent times.
We recommend that investors may consider the purchase if there is a two session still maintain the recovery. And if you act in this direction, the investor should buy funds with his own, limited use of financial leverage at this point.
